Measuring trading performance
Guides on the metrics that tell you whether you have an edge — and the journaling habits that keep you honest about it.
My win rate fell to 25% and I started making money
A lower win rate made my trading profitable. The arithmetic behind why win rate alone tells you almost nothing, and what to measure instead in your own log.
8 min read
Export trade history from MT4, IBKR and Binance
Your broker's export is a list of fills, not a trade log. Where to find it in MT4, IBKR and Binance, and the five columns to add before it answers anything.
11 min read
How to read an equity curve without fooling yourself
Your equity curve's shape is mostly trade order, not edge. The arithmetic behind drawdown, recovery factor and flat spots — and when the curve is just noise.
9 min read
Win rate vs risk reward ratio: the real trade-off
Every guide gives you the breakeven table and picks a winner. Two systems can share the same expectancy and still be nothing alike. Here is the arithmetic.
8 min read
Which trading session actually works for your strategy
Splitting your trade log by London, New York and Asia is easy. Reading the result without fooling yourself is the hard part. Here is the method.
9 min read
Risk of ruin in trading: the number that matters
Most risk of ruin calculators measure the odds of hitting zero. You will quit long before that. Here is the math for the drawdown you would actually stop at.
10 min read
How to know if you're overtrading: three tests
You think you trade too much, but you are guessing. Three tests turn that suspicion into a number, using trades you have already logged in your journal.
9 min read
How many trades before you know a strategy works
Everyone repeats the 100-trade rule; nobody derives it. Here is the arithmetic that turns your win rate and R-multiples into the sample size you need.
8 min read
How long a losing streak is normal at your win rate
You just lost six trades in a row. Here is the math that tells you whether that is ordinary variance at your win rate, or a strategy that has actually broken.
10 min read
What to Actually Record in a Trading Journal
Most trading journals fail because they record the wrong things. Here are the fields that produce answers, the ones that waste your time, and why.
5 min read
Profit Factor: What It Tells You, and What It Hides
Profit factor is the fastest read on whether a trading system makes money. It is also easy to misread on a small sample. Here is how to use it properly.
4 min read
R-Multiple: How to Measure a Trade Without Looking at P&L
R-multiple turns every trade into a comparable unit of risk. Here is how to calculate it, how to read it, and how to use it to tell edge apart from variance.
4 min read
Weekly Insights
One email a week on measuring trading performance. No account required.